Roda vs Heracles: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade
The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Roda. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Roda vs Heracles?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Roda (1,731) and Heracles (1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Roda have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Heracles have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alemannia Aachen(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 4-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 3-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Roda win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Heracles win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2023 | Heracles 1-0 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 11, 2022 | Roda 1-3 Heracles | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 18, 2022 | Roda 2-2 Heracles | KNVB Beker |
| Mar 2, 2018 | Roda 0-3 Heracles | Eredivisie |
| Sep 23, 2017 | Heracles 2-1 Roda | Eredivisie |
| Feb 11, 2017 | Heracles 2-2 Roda | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Roda score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Heracles score 1.1 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Heracles | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Roda sit 6th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Heracles sit 4th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Roda vs Heracles?
- The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Roda.
- Where and when is Roda vs Heracles played?
- Roda vs Heracles is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.