MVV vs Waalwijk: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 29, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab AI model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1. If Waalwijk wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Waalwijk?
Waalwijk starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,745 vs 1,594).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for MVV vs Waalwijk
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
MVV
4-2-3-1- 9T. Vinogradac
- 7L. Daneels
- 10O. Dumont
- 16R. Klaasen
- 18E. Sierra
- 24N. El Hamdaoui
- 6F. Dicke
- 17S. Wegen
- 22Sven Bouland
- 21D. Asante
- 1H. Wentges
Waalwijk
4-2-3-1- 9J. van de Haar
- 8J. Nap
- 7R. Fage
- 6L. Postma
- 10T. van Leeuwen
- 93V. Misidjan
- 30J. de Wijs
- 55N. Held
- 4L. van Gelderen
- 33F. Al Mazyani
- 1N. Schiks
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Waalwijk have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Roda(away) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | MVV(home) | 6-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 MVV wins, 1 draw, 5 Waalwijk wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Waalwijk 6-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 3, 2026 | MVV 1-3 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Waalwijk 1-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 15, 2019 | MVV 1-4 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 7, 2018 | Waalwijk 3-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 16, 2018 | Waalwijk 1-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Waalwijk score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Waalwijk | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (16 points from 10 matches) and Waalwijk sit 9th (14 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 14 |
A question about MVV vs Waalwijk?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Waalwijk?
- The Footlab AI model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs Waalwijk played?
- MVV vs Waalwijk is played on January 29, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.