England vs Czechia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes England the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Czechia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win England vs Czechia?
England starts as the favourite with a 259-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,594).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, England have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Czechia have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | France(away) | 6-4 | World Cup |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina(home) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Panama(away) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Croatia(home) | 4-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Mexico(home) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | South Africa(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 12, 2026 | South Korea(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Guatemala(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Kosovo(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 England win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Czechia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2021 | Czechia 0-1 England | Euro Championship |
| Oct 11, 2019 | Czechia 2-1 England | Euro Championship |
| Mar 22, 2019 | England 5-0 Czechia | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
England score 2.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Czechia score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 2.5 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Czechia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for England vs Czechia?
- The Footlab model makes England the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Czechia.
- Where and when is England vs Czechia played?
- England vs Czechia is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The City Ground, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.