Italy vs Türkiye: result 3-1 and analysis
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague A - 4Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Full time
What was the result of Italy vs Türkiye?
Italy won 3-1 on October 5, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 26′G. ScamaccaItaly
- 61′A. ŞimşirTürkiye
- 64′R. CalafioriItaly
- 87′F. EspositoItaly
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Italy win at 67%: prediction correct. Most likely score announced: 2-1. Actual score: 3-1.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Italy vs Türkiye
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Italy
4-3-3- 17D. Maldini
- 11G. Scamacca
- 21A. Vergara
- 15I. Doumbia
- 4A. Romano
- 18N. Barella
- 3M. Ruggeri
- 6A. Bastoni
- 23G. Mancini
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 1G. Donnarumma
Türkiye
5-4-1- 19Y. Akgün
- 21A. Şimşir
- 10İ. Kahveci
- 16İ. Yüksek
- 5S. Özcan
- 13E. Elmalı
- 14A. Bardakcı
- 15O. Kabak
- 2Z. Çelik
- 20F. Kadıoğlu
- 1U. Çakır
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Italy have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Türkiye have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | France(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Türkiye(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Italy(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | France(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 26, 2026 | USA(home) | 3-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Italy wins, 1 draw, 0 Türkiye wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Türkiye 1-4 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 4, 2024 | Italy 0-0 Türkiye | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Türkiye 2-3 Italy | Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2021 | Türkiye 0-3 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Italy score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Türkiye score 1.7 and concede 1.6.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 2.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Türkiye | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Italy sit 2nd in UEFA Nations League (7 points from 4 matches) and Türkiye sit 4th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
A question about Italy vs Türkiye?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy