Italy vs Türkiye: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes Italy the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Türkiye. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Italy vs Türkiye?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Italy (1,730) and Türkiye (1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Italy have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Türkiye have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway(home) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | USA(home) | 3-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Italy win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Türkiye win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2024 | Italy 0-0 Türkiye | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Türkiye 2-3 Italy | Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2021 | Türkiye 0-3 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Italy score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Türkiye score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 2.1 | 1.4 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Türkiye | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Italy vs Türkiye?
- The Footlab model makes Italy the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Türkiye.
- Where and when is Italy vs Türkiye played?
- Italy vs Türkiye is played on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.