France vs Belgium: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Belgium. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win France vs Belgium?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate France (1,862) and Belgium (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, France have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Belgium have 9, 6 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England(home) | 4-6 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Norway(away) | 4-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 3-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand(away) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Egypt(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 5 France win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Belgium win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Belgium 1-2 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2024 | France 2-0 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 1, 2024 | France 1-0 Belgium | Euro Championship |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Belgium 2-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 10, 2018 | France 1-0 Belgium | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
France score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Belgium score 3.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Belgium | 3.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for France vs Belgium?
- The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Belgium.
- Where and when is France vs Belgium played?
- France vs Belgium is played on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Groupama Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.