Match

Ermis Exochi vs Pierikos: prediction and stats

Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 9Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)

Ermis ExochiPierikos

The Footlab model makes Ermis Exochi the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Pierikos. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ermis Exochi vs Pierikos?

A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Ermis Exochi (1,538) and Pierikos (1,522).

Ermis Exochi win55 %
Draw26 %
Pierikos win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ermis Exochi have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Pierikos have 3, 2 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ermis Exochi
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Apr 8, 2026Alexandreia(home)1-0Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Apr 5, 2026Apollon Pontou(away)0-2Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Apr 1, 2026Veria(home)2-2Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Mar 28, 2026Pierikos(home)1-0Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Mar 22, 2026Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou(away)2-5Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Pierikos
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Apr 8, 2026Veria(home)0-3Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Apr 5, 2026Alexandreia(home)1-2Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Apr 1, 2026Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou(away)0-4Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Mar 28, 2026Ermis Exochi(away)0-1Gamma Ethniki - Group 2
Mar 22, 2026Apollon Pontou(home)0-1Gamma Ethniki - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Ermis Exochi win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Pierikos win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 28, 2026Ermis Exochi 1-0 PierikosGamma Ethniki - Group 2
Feb 2, 2026Ermis Exochi 3-1 PierikosGamma Ethniki - Group 2
Nov 2, 2025Pierikos 1-0 Ermis ExochiGamma Ethniki - Group 2

Last archived meeting: Ermis Exochi vs Pierikos on Mar 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Ermis Exochi score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pierikos score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Ermis Exochi1.41.759/158/15
Pierikos0.81.534/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ermis Exochi vs Pierikos?
The Footlab model makes Ermis Exochi the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Pierikos.
Where and when is Ermis Exochi vs Pierikos played?
Ermis Exochi vs Pierikos is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Ermis Exochi and Pierikos

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