Trikala vs Ermis Exochi: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 10Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Dimotiko Stadio Tríkalon, Trikala
The Footlab model makes Trikala the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Ermis Exochi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trikala vs Ermis Exochi?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Trikala (1,542) and Ermis Exochi (1,538).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trikala have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Ermis Exochi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Larisa(home) | 0-4 | Cup |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Lamia(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Aris Filiates(home) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Elassona(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Tilikratis(away) | 1-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Alexandreia(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Apollon Pontou(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Veria(home) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Pierikos(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou(away) | 2-5 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Trikala score 1.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ermis Exochi score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trikala | 1.2 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Ermis Exochi | 1.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trikala vs Ermis Exochi?
- The Footlab model makes Trikala the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Ermis Exochi.
- Where and when is Trikala vs Ermis Exochi played?
- Trikala vs Ermis Exochi is played on November 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Dimotiko Stadio Tríkalon, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.