Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs Lokomotive Leipzig played?

Erzgebirge Aue vs Lokomotive Leipzig is played on March 7, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Erzgebirge Aue vs Lokomotive Leipzig: prediction and stats

Regionalliga - NordostNordost - 24Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue

Erzgebirge Aue

Lokomotive Leipzig

The Footlab model makes Lokomotive Leipzig the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Erzgebirge Aue. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs Lokomotive Leipzig?

Lokomotive Leipzig starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,971 vs 1,840).

Erzgebirge Aue win30 %

Draw25 %

Lokomotive Leipzig win45 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erzgebirge Aue have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Lokomotive Leipzig have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Erzgebirge Aue
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(home)	0-4	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Chemnitzer FC(away)	1-3	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 9, 2026	BFC Preussen(home)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 6, 2026	BFC Dynamo(home)	3-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Jul 31, 2026	Tasmania Berlin(away)	2-0	Regionalliga - Nordost

Lokomotive Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 25, 2026	Chemnitzer FC(home)	0-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 16, 2026	Tasmania Berlin(away)	3-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 8, 2026	Hertha BSC II(home)	1-2	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 5, 2026	BFC Preussen(away)	2-1	Regionalliga - Nordost
Aug 2, 2026	Magdeburg II(home)	3-3	Regionalliga - Nordost

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Erzgebirge Aue win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lokomotive Leipzig win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 7, 2023	Lokomotive Leipzig 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 2, 2022	Erzgebirge Aue 4-0 Lokomotive Leipzig	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Lokomotive Leipzig vs Erzgebirge Aue on Jul 7, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Erzgebirge Aue score 2.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotive Leipzig score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Erzgebirge Aue	2.5	1.8	4	10/15	12/15
Lokomotive Leipzig	1.8	1.7	2	11/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Erzgebirge Aue sit 5th in Regionalliga - Nordost (10 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotive Leipzig sit 6th (10 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Erzgebirge Aue	5	3	1	1	11	9	10
6	Lokomotive Leipzig	6	3	1	2	12	11	10

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Erzgebirge Aue vs Lokomotive Leipzig?: The Footlab model makes Lokomotive Leipzig the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Erzgebirge Aue.
Where and when is Erzgebirge Aue vs Lokomotive Leipzig played?: Erzgebirge Aue vs Lokomotive Leipzig is played on March 7, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Erzgebirgsstadion, in the Regionalliga - Nordost.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.