ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, Radès
The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 59%, against 29% for a draw and 12% for US Monastirienne. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne?
ES Tunis starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (2,077 vs 1,880).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Tunis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; US Monastirienne have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Sahel(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 21, 2026 | BS Bouhajla(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | ES Hammam-Sousse(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2026 | AS Soliman(home) | 3-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | AS Gabes(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 ES Tunis win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 US Monastirienne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | US Monastirienne 2-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | ES Tunis 1-1 US Monastirienne | Ligue 1 |
| May 15, 2025 | ES Tunis 0-0 US Monastirienne | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | US Monastirienne 0-2 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 15, 2024 | ES Tunis 2-0 US Monastirienne | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 14, 2024 | US Monastirienne 1-1 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: US Monastirienne vs ES Tunis on Jan 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Tunis score 1.4 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; US Monastirienne score 0.7 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Tunis | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| US Monastirienne | 0.7 | 0.4 | 10 | 0/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Tunis sit 4th in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and US Monastirienne sit 5th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ES Tunis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne?
- The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 59%, against 29% for a draw and 12% for US Monastirienne.
- Where and when is ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne played?
- ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.