ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 8Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz, Zarzis
The Footlab model makes ES Zarzis the favourite at 50%, against 34% for a draw and 16% for US Ben Guerdane. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane?
ES Zarzis starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,856 vs 1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Zarzis have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; US Ben Guerdane have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Olympique Béja(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 20, 2026 | CA Bizertin(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| May 13, 2026 | CA Bizertin(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Stade Tunisien(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | AS Soliman(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 ES Zarzis win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 US Ben Guerdane win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | US Ben Guerdane 0-0 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 28, 2025 | ES Zarzis 1-1 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2025 | US Ben Guerdane 3-2 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 28, 2024 | ES Zarzis 2-2 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 28, 2017 | ES Zarzis 0-2 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2017 | US Ben Guerdane 0-0 ES Zarzis | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: US Ben Guerdane vs ES Zarzis on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Zarzis score 1.0 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; US Ben Guerdane score 0.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 22% probability of over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Zarzis | 1.0 | 0.5 | 9 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| US Ben Guerdane | 0.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ES Zarzis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane?
- The Footlab model makes ES Zarzis the favourite at 50%, against 34% for a draw and 16% for US Ben Guerdane.
- Where and when is ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane played?
- ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 22% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.