ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 5Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, Radès
The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 76%, against 19% for a draw and 5% for Olympique Béja. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja?
ES Tunis is a heavy favourite: 2,074 Elo points against 1,691 — a 383-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Tunis have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Olympique Béja have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Sahel(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 31, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| May 21, 2026 | BS Bouhajla(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2026 | Club Africain(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | CA Bizertin(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 ES Tunis win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Olympique Béja win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Olympique Béja 0-3 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | ES Tunis 2-0 Olympique Béja | Ligue 1 |
| May 11, 2025 | Olympique Béja 0-5 ES Tunis | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ES Tunis 1-1 Olympique Béja | Ligue 1 |
| Jun 7, 2023 | ES Tunis 2-0 Olympique Béja | Ligue 1 |
| May 28, 2023 | ES Tunis 0-1 Olympique Béja | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Olympique Béja vs ES Tunis on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Tunis score 1.4 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Olympique Béja score 0.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Tunis | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Olympique Béja | 0.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Tunis sit 4th in Ligue 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Olympique Béja sit 14th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ES Tunis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja?
- The Footlab model makes ES Tunis the favourite at 76%, against 19% for a draw and 5% for Olympique Béja.
- Where and when is ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja played?
- ES Tunis vs Olympique Béja is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade olympique Hammadi-Agrebi, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.