ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 2Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Stade Olympique de Sousse, Sousse (Sūsah)
The Footlab model makes ES Sahel the favourite at 52%, against 31% for a draw and 16% for ES Metlaoui. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate ES Sahel (1,826) and ES Metlaoui (1,779).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Sahel have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; ES Metlaoui have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ES Tunis(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| May 14, 2026 | CS Sfaxien(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | CA Bizertin(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | ES Metlaoui(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Africain(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| May 14, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 ES Sahel win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 ES Metlaoui win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | ES Metlaoui 2-0 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | ES Sahel 2-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ES Sahel 2-1 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | ES Metlaoui 0-0 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 3, 2021 | ES Metlaoui 1-1 ES Sahel | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 12, 2020 | ES Sahel 2-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: ES Metlaoui vs ES Sahel on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Sahel score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; ES Metlaoui score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Sahel | 1.3 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| ES Metlaoui | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ES Sahel sit 12th in Ligue 1 (0 points from 1 matches) and ES Metlaoui sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | ES Sahel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui?
- The Footlab model makes ES Sahel the favourite at 52%, against 31% for a draw and 16% for ES Metlaoui.
- Where and when is ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui played?
- ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Olympique de Sousse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.