ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, Métlaoui
The Footlab model makes ES Metlaoui the favourite at 44%, against 36% for a draw and 20% for US Ben Guerdane. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate ES Metlaoui (1,772) and US Ben Guerdane (1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ES Metlaoui have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; US Ben Guerdane have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Africain(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| May 14, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | ES Zarzis(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | ES Tunis(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Stade Tunisien(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | AS Soliman(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | JS Kairouanaise(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | US Monastirienne(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 ES Metlaoui win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 US Ben Guerdane win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | US Ben Guerdane 0-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 3, 2025 | ES Metlaoui 1-1 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 3, 2025 | US Ben Guerdane 2-2 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | ES Metlaoui 1-1 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
| May 26, 2024 | US Ben Guerdane 3-0 ES Metlaoui | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 3, 2024 | ES Metlaoui 3-1 US Ben Guerdane | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ES Metlaoui score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; US Ben Guerdane score 0.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 21% probability of over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Metlaoui | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| US Ben Guerdane | 0.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 2/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane?
- The Footlab model makes ES Metlaoui the favourite at 44%, against 36% for a draw and 20% for US Ben Guerdane.
- Where and when is ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane played?
- ES Metlaoui vs US Ben Guerdane is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Municipal de Métlaoui, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 21% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.