ESMTK vs Újpest II: prediction and stats
NB III - SoutheastSoutheast - 13Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)ESMTK Stadion, Budapest
The Footlab model makes ESMTK the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Újpest II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ESMTK vs Újpest II?
ESMTK starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,654 vs 1,439).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ESMTK have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Újpest II have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Algyő SK(away) | 3-0 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BKV Előre(away) | 3-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Csepel(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hódmezővásárhely(home) | 2-2 | NB III - Southeast |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Monori Se(home) | 2-1 | NB III - Southeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vasas II(away) | 5-3 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sándorfalva(away) | 0-1 | NB III - Southeast |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bekescsaba 1912(home) | 2-2 | NB III - Southeast |
| Jul 26, 2026 | BKV Előre(home) | 6-0 | NB III - Southeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Veszprém(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Northwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 ESMTK win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Újpest II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | ESMTK 1-0 Újpest II | NB III - Northwest |
| Aug 17, 2022 | Újpest II 0-2 ESMTK | NB III - Northwest |
| May 16, 2021 | ESMTK 2-0 Újpest II | NB III - Northwest |
| Nov 8, 2020 | Újpest II 3-3 ESMTK | NB III - Northwest |
How many goals should we expect?
ESMTK score 2.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Újpest II score 2.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESMTK | 2.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 14/15 |
| Újpest II | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ESMTK sit 6th in NB III - Southeast (7 points from 4 matches) and Újpest II sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Újpest II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | ESMTK | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ESMTK vs Újpest II?
- The Footlab model makes ESMTK the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Újpest II.
- Where and when is ESMTK vs Újpest II played?
- ESMTK vs Újpest II is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at ESMTK Stadion, in the NB III - Southeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.