Estac Troyes vs Le Mans: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 9Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab AI model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Le Mans. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estac Troyes wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Estac Troyes (1,958) and Le Mans (1,960).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 22H. Picard
- 29D. Karim
- 23T. Nkada
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 3A. Ouzenadji
- 2L. Maronnier
- 33P. Beach
Le Mans
3-1-4-2- 14L. Mafouta
- 25D. Guèye
- 11A. Bourabaa
- 26R. Bamba
- 10J. Vercruysse
- 29L. Bretelle
- 22L. Calodat
- 5H. Voyer
- 17S. Yohou
- 15N. Boissé
- 98N. Kocik
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Le Mans have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lorient(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lens(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nice(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Estac Troyes wins, 2 draws, 2 Le Mans wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Le Mans 2-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 18, 2019 | Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 24, 2012 | Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 26, 2011 | Le Mans 1-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| May 10, 2011 | Estac Troyes 0-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Le Mans score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 1.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Le Mans | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estac Troyes sit 16th in Ligue 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Le Mans sit 9th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Le Mans.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Le Mans played?
- Estac Troyes vs Le Mans is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.