Estac Troyes vs Le Mans: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 9Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Le Mans. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Estac Troyes (1,968) and Le Mans (1,937).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Le Mans have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angers(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Estac Troyes win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Le Mans win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Le Mans 2-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 18, 2019 | Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Feb 24, 2012 | Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 26, 2011 | Le Mans 1-1 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| May 10, 2011 | Estac Troyes 0-1 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
Last archived meeting: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 2.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Le Mans score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 2.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Le Mans | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estac Troyes sit 13th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Le Mans sit 7th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Estac Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
- The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Le Mans.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Le Mans played?
- Estac Troyes vs Le Mans is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.