Paris FC vs Monaco: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 9Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Paris FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris FC vs Monaco?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Paris FC (2,013) and Monaco (2,087).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Monaco have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Reims(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Le Havre(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Paris FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Monaco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | Paris FC 4-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Monaco 0-1 Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Paris FC score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Monaco score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Monaco | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris FC sit 11th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Monaco sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris FC vs Monaco?
- The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Paris FC.
- Where and when is Paris FC vs Monaco played?
- Paris FC vs Monaco is played on October 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Jean Bouin, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.