Estac Troyes vs Paris FC: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Aube, Troyes
The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Paris FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Estac Troyes (1,971) and Paris FC (2,013).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estac Troyes have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Paris FC have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Reims(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Estac Troyes win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Paris FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2025 | Paris FC 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Estac Troyes 0-3 Paris FC | Ligue 2 |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Estac Troyes 1-2 Paris FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Estac Troyes 1-2 Paris FC | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Paris FC 2-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Paris FC 1-0 Estac Troyes | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Paris FC vs Estac Troyes on Feb 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Estac Troyes score 2.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Paris FC score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 2.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Paris FC | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Paris FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 50 | 44 |
Who is out?
6 reported absence(s) for this match.
- A. Ahmed FatahEstac TroyesDoubtful(Hamstring Injury)
- I. BouraEstac TroyesOut(Injury)
- E. MbembaParis FCOut(Inactive)
- J. IkonéParis FCOut(Hamstring Injury)
- N. SanguiParis FCOut(Injury)
- O. SissokoParis FCDoubtful(Ankle Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC?
- The Footlab model makes Estac Troyes the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Paris FC.
- Where and when is Estac Troyes vs Paris FC played?
- Estac Troyes vs Paris FC is played on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Aube, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.