Nice vs Lorient: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Allianz Riviera, Nice
The Footlab model makes Nice the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Lorient. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nice vs Lorient?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Nice (1,959) and Lorient (2,011).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nice have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Lorient have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 29, 2026 | Saint Etienne(home) | 4-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | SV Elversberg(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angers(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nantes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nice win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Lorient win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Lorient 0-0 Nice | Coupe de France |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Nice 3-3 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Lorient 3-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Nice 3-0 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Lorient 1-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Nice 1-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Nice score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lorient score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Lorient | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nice sit 16th in Ligue 1 (32 points from 34 matches) and Lorient sit 9th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lorient | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 48 | 51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nice | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 60 | 32 |
Who is out?
5 reported absence(s) for this match.
- L. AbergelNiceOut(Knee Injury)
- M. BombitoNiceOut(Leg Injury)
- Mohamed AbdelmonemNiceOut(Ankle Injury)
- N. NgoumouNiceOut(Muscle Injury)
- M. BambaLorientOut(Lacking Match Fitness)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nice vs Lorient?
- The Footlab model makes Nice the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Lorient.
- Where and when is Nice vs Lorient played?
- Nice vs Lorient is played on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Allianz Riviera, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.