Le Havre vs Monaco: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 03:15 PM (UTC)Stade Océane, Le Havre
The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Le Havre. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Havre vs Monaco?
Monaco starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,890).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Havre have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Monaco have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cercle Brugge(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Le Havre win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Monaco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Le Havre 0-0 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Monaco 3-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Le Havre 1-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Monaco 3-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Monaco 1-1 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Le Havre 0-0 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Havre score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Monaco score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
| Monaco | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Havre sit 14th in Ligue 1 (35 points from 34 matches) and Monaco sit 7th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monaco | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 60 | 54 | 54 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 32 | 44 | 35 |
Who is out?
6 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Ansu FatiMonacoOut(Calf Injury)
- C. Mawissa ElebiMonacoOut(Yellow Cards)
- M. SalisuMonacoOut(Knee Injury)
- A. TouréLe HavreOut(Knee Injury)
- F. MambimbiLe HavreOut(Injury)
- Stephan ZagadouLe HavreOut(Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Havre vs Monaco?
- The Footlab model makes Monaco the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Le Havre.
- Where and when is Le Havre vs Monaco played?
- Le Havre vs Monaco is played on August 23, 2026 at 03:15 PM (UTC) at Stade Océane, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.