Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
The Footlab model makes Le Mans the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Stade Brestois 29. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Le Mans (1,941) and Stade Brestois 29 (1,939).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Mans have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Stade Brestois 29 have 1, 6 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angers(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nantes(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Stade Briochin(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guingamp(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Mans score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Stade Brestois 29 score 1.2 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 43 | 55 | 39 |
Who is out?
3 reported absence(s) for this match.
- B. ChardonnetStade Brestois 29Out(Calf Injury)
- H. MagnettiStade Brestois 29Doubtful(Muscle Injury)
- H. VoyerLe MansOut(Yellow Cards)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29?
- The Footlab model makes Le Mans the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Stade Brestois 29.
- Where and when is Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 played?
- Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 is played on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Marie-Marvingt, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.