Toulouse vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab model makes Lyon the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Lyon?
Lyon starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (2,119 vs 1,988).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Lyon have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2026 | Strasbourg(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | VfL Wolfsburg(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Toulouse win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Lyon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Toulouse 2-1 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Lyon 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Lyon 0-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Toulouse 1-2 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Toulouse 2-3 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Lyon 3-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Lyon | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 10th in Ligue 1 (44 points from 33 matches) and Lyon sit 4th (60 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 53 | 40 | 60 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 47 | 46 | 44 |
Who is out?
9 reported absence(s) for this match.
- AbnerLyonOut(Inactive)
- A. Maitland-NilesLyonOut(Inactive)
- K. MerahLyonOut(Ankle Injury)
- M. NiakhatéLyonOut(Inactive)
- R. KluivertLyonOut(Inactive)
- A. DønnumToulouseOut(Inactive)
- A. FrancisToulouseOut(Inactive)
- A. VossahToulouseOut(Yellow Cards)
- D. MethalieToulouseOut(Yellow Cards)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lyon?
- The Footlab model makes Lyon the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Lyon played?
- Toulouse vs Lyon is played on August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.