Marino vs San Bartolomé: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, Los Cristianos (Tenerife)
The Footlab model makes Marino the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for San Bartolomé. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marino vs San Bartolomé?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Marino (1,704) and San Bartolomé (1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marino have 0 wins, 10 draws and 5 defeats; San Bartolomé have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 0-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Arucas(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 1, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Unión Sur Yaiza(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | San Miguel(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Tenerife C(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 3, 2026 | Lanzarote(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Arucas(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Villa Santa Brígida(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Marino win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 San Bartolomé win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Marino 1-1 San Bartolomé | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | San Bartolomé 2-3 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | San Bartolomé 0-2 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Marino 1-0 San Bartolomé | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Apr 10, 2024 | San Bartolomé 3-0 Marino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Marino 0-1 San Bartolomé | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: Marino vs San Bartolomé on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marino score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; San Bartolomé score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marino | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| San Bartolomé | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marino sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (39 points from 34 matches) and San Bartolomé sit 14th (36 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Marino | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 44 | 40 | 39 |
| 14 | San Bartolomé | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 30 | 55 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marino vs San Bartolomé?
- The Footlab model makes Marino the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for San Bartolomé.
- Where and when is Marino vs San Bartolomé played?
- Marino vs San Bartolomé is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 13, 2026LanzarotevsVilla Santa Brígida
- Dec 13, 2026Panadería PulidovsSan Fernando CD
- Dec 13, 2026Unión Sur YaizavsTenerife C
- Dec 13, 2026EstrellavsMensajero
- Dec 13, 2026Real Unión de TenerifevsVillaverde Norte
- Dec 13, 2026Laguna de DuerovsSan Miguel
- Dec 13, 2026Los LlanosvsLas Palmas III
- Dec 13, 2026Playas SotaventovsAnaza