Mensajero vs Lanzarote: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)
The Footlab AI model makes Mensajero the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Lanzarote. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,445 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mensajero vs Lanzarote?
On Elo ratings, Mensajero has 1,821 points and Lanzarote 1,778.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mensajero vs Lanzarote
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mensajero
Not enough data to predict the Mensajero lineup.
Lanzarote
Not enough data to predict the Lanzarote lineup.
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 11:37 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Lanzarote have 3, 10 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Los Llanos(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Panadería Pulido(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas III(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Bartolomé(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Real Unión de Tenerife(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Marino(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Anaza(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Los Llanos(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UD San Fernando(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mensajero wins, 1 draw, 2 Lanzarote wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Mensajero 3-0 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Lanzarote 4-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| May 4, 2025 | Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Lanzarote 2-0 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Lanzarote 1-1 Mensajero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
| Dec 6, 2022 | Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote | Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 |
Last archived meeting: Mensajero vs Lanzarote on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mensajero score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lanzarote score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mensajero | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Lanzarote | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mensajero sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (12 points from 9 matches) and Lanzarote sit 11th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mensajero | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 11 | Lanzarote | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
A question about Mensajero vs Lanzarote?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Lanzarote?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mensajero the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Lanzarote.
- Where and when is Mensajero vs Lanzarote played?
- Mensajero vs Lanzarote is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026San Fernando CDvsLos Llanos
- Dec 20, 2026Las Palmas IIIvsMarino
- Dec 20, 2026Panadería PulidovsVilla Santa Brígida
- Dec 20, 2026San BartolomévsReal Unión de Tenerife
- Dec 20, 2026Tenerife CvsEstrella
- Dec 20, 2026San MiguelvsPlayas Sotavento
- Dec 20, 2026AnazavsUnión Sur Yaiza
- Dec 20, 2026Villaverde NortevsLaguna de Duero