Where and when is Mensajero vs Lanzarote played?

Mensajero vs Lanzarote is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mensajero vs Lanzarote: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Group 12 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, Santa Cruz de la Palma (La Palma)

Mensajero

Lanzarote

The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Lanzarote. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mensajero vs Lanzarote?

A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Mensajero (1,855) and Lanzarote (1,782).

Mensajero win59 %

Draw26 %

Lanzarote win15 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mensajero have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Lanzarote have 2, 9 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mensajero
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Tamaraceite(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 16, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 10, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	Arucas(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 26, 2026	Villa Santa Brígida(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Lanzarote
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Real Unión de Tenerife(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 3, 2026	San Bartolomé(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 25, 2026	Tamaraceite(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 19, 2026	UD San Fernando(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Apr 11, 2026	Herbania(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mensajero win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lanzarote win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 1, 2026	Mensajero 3-0 Lanzarote	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Sep 21, 2025	Lanzarote 4-1 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
May 4, 2025	Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 22, 2024	Lanzarote 2-0 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Feb 12, 2023	Lanzarote 1-1 Mensajero	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Dec 6, 2022	Mensajero 2-1 Lanzarote	Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Last archived meeting: Mensajero vs Lanzarote on Feb 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mensajero score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lanzarote score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mensajero	1.3	0.9	7	6/15	5/15
Lanzarote	0.8	1.0	4	8/15	3/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mensajero sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (63 points from 34 matches) and Lanzarote sit 9th (48 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Mensajero	34	18	9	7	51	31	63
9	Lanzarote	34	12	12	10	45	36	48

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mensajero vs Lanzarote?: The Footlab model makes Mensajero the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Lanzarote.
Where and when is Mensajero vs Lanzarote played?: Mensajero vs Lanzarote is played on December 20, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.