Excelsior '31 vs Sparta Nijkerk: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Koerbelt, Rijssen
The Footlab model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Sparta Nijkerk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior '31 vs Sparta Nijkerk?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Excelsior '31 (1,737) and Sparta Nijkerk (1,800).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior '31 have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Sparta Nijkerk have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Staphorst(away) | 4-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 4-0 | Derde Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | URK(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Staphorst(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | TEC(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sportlust '46(home) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie |
| May 30, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 1-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 27, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(home) | 0-3 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior '31 win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Sparta Nijkerk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Excelsior '31 3-2 Sparta Nijkerk | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Sparta Nijkerk 4-3 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Sparta Nijkerk 0-2 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Excelsior '31 2-4 Sparta Nijkerk | Derde Divisie |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Excelsior '31 1-2 Sparta Nijkerk | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 6, 2022 | Sparta Nijkerk 1-1 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior '31 vs Sparta Nijkerk on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior '31 score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Sparta Nijkerk score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior '31 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sparta Nijkerk | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior '31 sit 1st in Derde Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and Sparta Nijkerk sit 14th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sparta Nijkerk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior '31 vs Sparta Nijkerk?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Sparta Nijkerk.
- Where and when is Excelsior '31 vs Sparta Nijkerk played?
- Excelsior '31 vs Sparta Nijkerk is played on April 17, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Koerbelt, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.