Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Excursionistas, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Villa Dalmine the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Excursionistas. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Excursionistas (1,753) and Villa Dalmine (1,748).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excursionistas have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Villa Dalmine have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 5-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(home) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Flandria(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(away) | 2-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(home) | 1-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Flandria(home) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Argentino Quilmes(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Excursionistas win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Villa Dalmine win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Villa Dalmine 1-0 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Villa Dalmine 2-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Excursionistas 3-0 Villa Dalmine | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Villa Dalmine 0-0 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Excursionistas 2-2 Villa Dalmine | Primera B Metropolitana |
| May 14, 2012 | Excursionistas 0-3 Villa Dalmine | Primera C |
Last archived meeting: Villa Dalmine vs Excursionistas on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excursionistas score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Villa Dalmine score 0.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excursionistas | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Villa Dalmine | 0.9 | 0.6 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excursionistas sit 1st in Primera B Metropolitana (41 points from 20 matches) and Villa Dalmine sit 3rd (37 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 41 |
| 1 | Excursionistas | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 59 |
| 2 | Villa Dalmine | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 35 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Villa Dalmine | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 10 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
- The Footlab model makes Villa Dalmine the favourite at 34%, against 33% for a draw and 33% for Excursionistas.
- Where and when is Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine played?
- Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Excursionistas, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026Arsenal SarandivsUAI Urquiza
- Sep 12, 2026Brown DE AdroguevsSan Martín Burzaco
- Sep 12, 2026FlandriavsDeportivo Camioneros
- Sep 12, 2026Deportivo LaferrerevsVilla San Carlos
- Sep 12, 2026Talleres RemediosvsLiniers
- Sep 12, 2026Defensores UnidosvsDock Sud
- Sep 12, 2026Deportivo ArmeniovsSportivo Italiano
- Sep 12, 2026Argentino de MerlovsReal Pilar