Fafe vs Varzim: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parque Municipal dos Desportos, Fafe
The Footlab AI model makes Fafe the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Varzim. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fafe wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fafe vs Varzim?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Fafe (2,052) and Varzim (2,003).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fafe vs Varzim
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fafe
4-3-3- 13Tiago Veiga
- 9M. Correia
- 11Picas
- 10Daniel Carvalho
- 8Mimito Biai
- 16G. Dinis
- 26João Batista
- 2Obama Ribeiro
- 15Breno
- 3P. Pereira
- 1P. Kudakovskiy
Varzim
4-3-3- 9Rodrigo Pereira
- 7Pedro Matos
- 11D. Benchi
- 27Martim Boloto
- 55D. Rebelo
- 10M. Moreno Tavares Cunha
- 26Rúben Fernandes
- 19A. Morais Guedes
- 3P. Nuno
- 4Kauã Oliveira
- 49P. Costa
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fafe have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Varzim have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lajense(home) | 4-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leça(away) | 3-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Fafe wins, 1 draw, 1 Varzim win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Fafe 1-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Varzim 1-1 Fafe | Liga 3 |
| May 17, 2025 | Varzim 5-3 Fafe | Liga 3 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Fafe 1-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Fafe 2-0 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Varzim 0-2 Fafe | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Fafe score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Varzim score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fafe | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Varzim | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fafe sit 5th in Liga 3 (9 points from 6 matches) and Varzim sit 6th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
A question about Fafe vs Varzim?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fafe vs Varzim?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fafe the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Varzim.
- Where and when is Fafe vs Varzim played?
- Fafe vs Varzim is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.