Mafra vs União Santarém: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs União Santarém?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Mafra (1,918) and União Santarém (1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; União Santarém have 1, 6 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Mafra win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 União Santarém win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Mafra 2-1 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | União Santarém 3-1 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Mafra 0-0 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | União Santarém 1-2 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | União Santarém 0-1 Mafra | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Mafra vs União Santarém on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; União Santarém score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| União Santarém | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mafra sit 7th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and União Santarém sit 10th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | União Santarém | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs União Santarém?
- The Footlab model makes Mafra the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for União Santarém.
- Where and when is Mafra vs União Santarém played?
- Mafra vs União Santarém is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.