Mafra vs União Santarém: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mafra wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,597 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs União Santarém?
On Elo ratings, Mafra has 1,978 points and União Santarém 1,916.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mafra vs União Santarém
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mafra
4-3-3- 9Mamor Niang
- 7R. Matos
- 11Leandro Alves
- 46Braima Samú
- 37A. Ba
- 8L. Neves
- 2M. Camara
- 3Kauê Alves
- 13Celso Raposo
- 15João Silva
- 1Francisco Lemos
União Santarém
4-3-3- 30R. Mordomo
- 9Costinha
- 64Rafael Camacho
- 37Mauro Macuta Simão
- 27A. Soumare
- 21João Nobrega
- 55Hélder Sá
- 17K. John
- 2B. Sousa
- 5Tiago André
- 1Ricardo Ribeiro
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 02:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; União Santarém have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 3-3 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tirsense(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 3-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Merelinense(home) | 5-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Mafra wins, 1 draw, 1 União Santarém win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Mafra 2-1 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | União Santarém 3-1 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Mafra 0-0 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | União Santarém 1-2 Mafra | Liga 3 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | União Santarém 0-1 Mafra | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Mafra vs União Santarém on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; União Santarém score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| União Santarém | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mafra sit 3rd in Liga 3 (12 points from 8 matches) and União Santarém sit 6th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mafra | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 10 |
A question about Mafra vs União Santarém?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs União Santarém?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mafra the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for União Santarém.
- Where and when is Mafra vs União Santarém played?
- Mafra vs União Santarém is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.