Fakel vs FC Krasnodar: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Voronezh
The Footlab model makes FC Krasnodar the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar is a heavy favourite: 2,155 Elo points against 1,849, a 307-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fakel have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; FC Krasnodar have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fakel win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 FC Krasnodar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Krasnodar 3-2 Fakel | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | FC Krasnodar 5-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Fakel 0-0 FC Krasnodar | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2024 | FC Krasnodar 2-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2023 | Fakel 0-0 FC Krasnodar | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Fakel 3-3 FC Krasnodar | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Krasnodar score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| FC Krasnodar | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fakel sit 15th in Premier League (2 points from 5 matches) and FC Krasnodar sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 15 |
| 15 | Fakel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fakel vs FC Krasnodar?
- The Footlab model makes FC Krasnodar the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Fakel vs FC Krasnodar played?
- Fakel vs FC Krasnodar is played on May 22, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.