FC Krasnodar vs Fakel: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion FK Krasnodar, Krasnodar
The Footlab model makes FC Krasnodar the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Fakel. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
FC Krasnodar is a heavy favourite: 2,154 Elo points against 1,847 — a 307-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Krasnodar have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Fakel have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC Krasnodar win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Fakel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Krasnodar 3-2 Fakel | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2025 | FC Krasnodar 5-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Fakel 0-0 FC Krasnodar | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2024 | FC Krasnodar 2-0 Fakel | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2023 | Fakel 0-0 FC Krasnodar | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2022 | Fakel 3-3 FC Krasnodar | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Krasnodar score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Krasnodar | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Krasnodar vs Fakel?
- The Footlab model makes FC Krasnodar the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Fakel.
- Where and when is FC Krasnodar vs Fakel played?
- FC Krasnodar vs Fakel is played on October 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion FK Krasnodar, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.