Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 31Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Falkirk Community Stadium, Falkirk
The Footlab model makes Falkirk the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Kilmarnock. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Falkirk (1,888) and Kilmarnock (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Falkirk have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Kilmarnock have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 1, 2026 | ST Mirren(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stranraer(home) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Genk(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 3-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 1-5 | Premiership |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 3-4 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Peterhead(away) | 0-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Falkirk win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Kilmarnock win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Falkirk 5-1 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Kilmarnock 0-1 Falkirk | Premiership |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Falkirk 3-1 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Jun 24, 2022 | Falkirk 1-4 Kilmarnock | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 4, 2021 | Kilmarnock 3-1 Falkirk | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 6, 2020 | Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Falkirk vs Kilmarnock on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Falkirk score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kilmarnock score 2.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 1.3 | 1.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Kilmarnock | 2.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Falkirk sit 10th in Premiership (1 points from 2 matches) and Kilmarnock sit 12th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
- The Footlab model makes Falkirk the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Kilmarnock.
- Where and when is Falkirk vs Kilmarnock played?
- Falkirk vs Kilmarnock is played on March 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Falkirk Community Stadium, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.