Fazendense vs FC Alverca II: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Fazendense the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for FC Alverca II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fazendense vs FC Alverca II?
FC Alverca II starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,728).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, Fazendense have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; FC Alverca II have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Mirandela(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Sintrense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 7, 2020 | 1º Dezembro(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Portimonense B(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Fazendense score 0.8 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 5; FC Alverca II score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fazendense | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0 | 2/5 | 3/5 |
| FC Alverca II | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fazendense sit 10th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (1 points from 1 matches) and FC Alverca II sit 12th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fazendense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Alverca II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fazendense vs FC Alverca II?
- The Footlab model makes Fazendense the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for FC Alverca II.
- Where and when is Fazendense vs FC Alverca II played?
- Fazendense vs FC Alverca II is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.