Match

FC Alverca II vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 15Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)

FC Alverca IIUD da Serra

The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for UD da Serra. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Alverca II vs UD da Serra?

A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate FC Alverca II (1,858) and UD da Serra (1,825).

FC Alverca II win45 %
Draw29 %
UD da Serra win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Alverca II have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; UD da Serra have 9, 3 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Alverca II
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026UD da Serra(away)1-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Apr 18, 2026Comércio Indústria(home)5-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Apr 12, 2026FC Serpa(away)1-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Apr 4, 2026Alcochetense(home)0-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Mar 29, 2026Portimonense B(home)4-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
UD da Serra
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026FC Alverca II(home)2-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Aug 16, 2026Naval 1893(away)2-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Apr 18, 2026Samora Correir(away)2-4Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Apr 12, 2026Peniche(home)3-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C
Apr 4, 2026Oliveira Hospital(away)0-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 FC Alverca II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 UD da Serra win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026UD da Serra 2-1 FC Alverca IICampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

Last archived meeting: UD da Serra vs FC Alverca II on Aug 23, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC Alverca II score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; UD da Serra score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC Alverca II1.91.149/1511/15
UD da Serra1.40.976/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Alverca II sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (0 points from 1 matches) and UD da Serra sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2UD da Serra2200426
12FC Alverca II1001120

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Alverca II vs UD da Serra?
The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for UD da Serra.
Where and when is FC Alverca II vs UD da Serra played?
FC Alverca II vs UD da Serra is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FC Alverca II and UD da Serra

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