Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, Sertã
The Footlab AI model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-1. If AD Nogueirense wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,718 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Sertanense (1,746) and AD Nogueirense (1,788).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
AD Nogueirense
Not enough data to predict the AD Nogueirense lineup.
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 02:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sertanense have 1 win, 7 draws and 7 defeats; AD Nogueirense have 1, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Nazarenos(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Fátima(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Sertanense wins, 1 draw, 0 AD Nogueirense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Nogueirense 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AD Nogueirense score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| AD Nogueirense | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 6/11 | 5/11 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sertanense sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (4 points from 6 matches) and AD Nogueirense sit 9th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
A question about Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense?
- The Footlab AI model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense played?
- Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.