Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, Sertã
The Footlab model makes Sertanense the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for AD Nogueirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Sertanense (1,715) and AD Nogueirense (1,755).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sertanense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; AD Nogueirense have 0, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Alcains(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Os Marialvas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | Gafanha(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Mortágua(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sertanense win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 AD Nogueirense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Nogueirense 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sertanense score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AD Nogueirense score 0.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sertanense | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| AD Nogueirense | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0 | 2/5 | 1/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sertanense sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (1 points from 2 matches) and AD Nogueirense sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 11 | Sertanense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense?
- The Footlab model makes Sertanense the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for AD Nogueirense.
- Where and when is Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense played?
- Sertanense vs AD Nogueirense is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.