Nazarenos vs Mortágua: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Nazarenos. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,239 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nazarenos vs Mortágua?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Nazarenos (1,788) and Mortágua (1,857).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nazarenos vs Mortágua
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nazarenos
Not enough data to predict the Nazarenos lineup.
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 09:41 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Nazarenos have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Mortágua have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Nazarenos wins, 0 draws, 1 Mortágua win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mortágua 3-1 Nazarenos | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Mortágua vs Nazarenos on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nazarenos score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 11; Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazarenos | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 4/11 | 6/11 |
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nazarenos sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (5 points from 7 matches) and Mortágua sit 3rd (14 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mortágua | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 5 |
A question about Nazarenos vs Mortágua?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nazarenos vs Mortágua?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Nazarenos.
- Where and when is Nazarenos vs Mortágua played?
- Nazarenos vs Mortágua is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.