AD Nogueirense vs Fazendense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 15Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Santo António, Nogueira do Cravo
The Footlab model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Fazendense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Fazendense?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate AD Nogueirense (1,755) and Fazendense (1,728).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 5 matches in all competitions, AD Nogueirense have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Fazendense have 0, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | Gafanha(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Mortágua(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Mirandela(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Sintrense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 7, 2020 | 1º Dezembro(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 AD Nogueirense win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Fazendense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fazendense 3-3 AD Nogueirense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Fazendense vs AD Nogueirense on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Nogueirense score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 5; Fazendense score 0.8 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Nogueirense | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0 | 2/5 | 1/5 |
| Fazendense | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0 | 2/5 | 3/5 |
Over the last 5 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Nogueirense sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (2 points from 2 matches) and Fazendense sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Fazendense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Nogueirense vs Fazendense?
- The Footlab model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Fazendense.
- Where and when is AD Nogueirense vs Fazendense played?
- AD Nogueirense vs Fazendense is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Santo António, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.