FC Alverca II vs Mortágua: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 20Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Mortágua. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,974 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Alverca II vs Mortágua?
On Elo ratings, FC Alverca II has 1,866 points and Mortágua 1,831.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Alverca II vs Mortágua
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Alverca II
4-3-3- RRodrigo Catraio
- RRafael Santos
- AAfonso Vagarinho
- PPedro Henriques
- 6Tomas Lacerda
- JJanickson da Silva
- DDiogo Ramos
- DDiogo Cordes
- FFábio Celestino
- SSimão Lamas
- 1Cristian
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 01:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Alverca II have 7 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats; Mortágua have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 23, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 FC Alverca II wins, 2 draws, 2 Mortágua wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | Mortágua 0-0 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 8, 2024 | FC Alverca II 1-2 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 25, 2024 | FC Alverca II 1-2 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Mortágua 0-0 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Mortágua vs FC Alverca II on Mar 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Alverca II score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca II | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Alverca II sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (3 points from 4 matches) and Mortágua sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
A question about FC Alverca II vs Mortágua?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Alverca II vs Mortágua?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Mortágua.
- Where and when is FC Alverca II vs Mortágua played?
- FC Alverca II vs Mortágua is played on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.