FC Alverca II vs Mortágua: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 20Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Mortágua. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Alverca II vs Mortágua?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate FC Alverca II (1,858) and Mortágua (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Alverca II have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Mortágua have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Portimonense B(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sertanense(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Eléctrico(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 FC Alverca II win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Mortágua win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | Mortágua 0-0 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 8, 2024 | FC Alverca II 1-2 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 25, 2024 | FC Alverca II 1-2 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Mortágua 0-0 FC Alverca II | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Mortágua vs FC Alverca II on Mar 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Alverca II score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mortágua score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca II | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Mortágua | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Alverca II sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (0 points from 1 matches) and Mortágua sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | FC Alverca II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Alverca II vs Mortágua?
- The Footlab model makes FC Alverca II the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Mortágua.
- Where and when is FC Alverca II vs Mortágua played?
- FC Alverca II vs Mortágua is played on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.