UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 20Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Portela, Santa Catarina da Serra
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Os Marialvas. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD da Serra wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,788 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate UD da Serra (1,896) and Os Marialvas (1,889).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD da Serra
Not enough data to predict the UD da Serra lineup.
Os Marialvas
Not enough data to predict the Os Marialvas lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD da Serra have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Os Marialvas have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 1-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Nazarenos(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fátima(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 UD da Serra win, 1 draw, 0 Os Marialvas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Os Marialvas 1-1 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 14, 2025 | UD da Serra 4-1 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Os Marialvas vs UD da Serra on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD da Serra score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Os Marialvas score 1.3 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD da Serra | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Os Marialvas | 1.3 | 0.4 | 11 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD da Serra sit 5th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (8 points from 4 matches) and Os Marialvas sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
A question about UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Os Marialvas.
- Where and when is UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas played?
- UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas is played on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Portela, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.