UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 20Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Portela, Santa Catarina da Serra
The Footlab model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Os Marialvas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate UD da Serra (1,816) and Os Marialvas (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD da Serra have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Os Marialvas have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Samora Correir(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Peniche(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jul 22, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Lajense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 UD da Serra win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Os Marialvas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Os Marialvas 1-1 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 14, 2025 | UD da Serra 4-1 Os Marialvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Os Marialvas vs UD da Serra on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD da Serra score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Os Marialvas score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD da Serra | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Os Marialvas | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD da Serra sit 2nd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 2 matches) and Os Marialvas sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UD da Serra | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Os Marialvas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas?
- The Footlab model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Os Marialvas.
- Where and when is UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas played?
- UD da Serra vs Os Marialvas is played on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Portela, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.