FC Porto vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 69%, against 21% for a draw and 10% for Arouca. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Arouca?
FC Porto starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (2,342 vs 2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Arouca have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Porto win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Arouca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | FC Porto 3-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Arouca 0-4 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Arouca 0-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 29, 2024 | FC Porto 4-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 12, 2024 | Arouca 3-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 3, 2023 | FC Porto 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Arouca | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and Arouca sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Arouca?
- The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 69%, against 21% for a draw and 10% for Arouca.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Arouca played?
- FC Porto vs Arouca is played on August 23, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.