FC Tallinn vs Maardu: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for FC Tallinn. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tallinn vs Maardu?
Maardu starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,411 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tallinn have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Maardu have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme United II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Maardu(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 FC Tallinn win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Maardu win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Maardu 1-0 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
| May 28, 2026 | FC Tallinn 0-0 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Maardu 1-1 FC Tallinn | Esiliiga A |
| Jan 18, 2026 | FC Tallinn 1-4 Maardu | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tallinn score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Maardu score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tallinn | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Maardu | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tallinn sit 10th in Esiliiga A (14 points from 16 matches) and Maardu sit 8th (16 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Maardu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 52 | 35 |
| 8 | Maardu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 54 | 25 |
| 10 | FC Tallinn | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 39 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tallinn vs Maardu?
- The Footlab model makes Maardu the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for FC Tallinn.
- Where and when is FC Tallinn vs Maardu played?
- FC Tallinn vs Maardu is played on September 10, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Lasnamäe SPK kunstmuruväljak, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.