FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Maarjamäe Staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for FCI Levadia II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco?
Tartu Welco starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,449 vs 1,313).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FCI Levadia II have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Tartu Welco have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tartu Welco(away) | 2-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Viimsi(away) | 0-5 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nõmme United II(away) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Elva(home) | 2-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FCI Levadia II win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Tartu Welco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tartu Welco 4-2 FCI Levadia II | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 18, 2026 | FCI Levadia II 1-3 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Tartu Welco 3-2 FCI Levadia II | Esiliiga A |
| Sep 27, 2025 | FCI Levadia II 1-1 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Tartu Welco 3-0 FCI Levadia II | Esiliiga A |
| May 29, 2025 | FCI Levadia II 3-3 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Welco vs FCI Levadia II on Aug 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FCI Levadia II score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCI Levadia II | 2.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FCI Levadia II sit 9th in Esiliiga A (15 points from 16 matches) and Tartu Welco sit 1st (38 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 7 | FCI Levadia II | 25 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 48 | 34 |
| 9 | FCI Levadia II | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 33 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 54%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for FCI Levadia II.
- Where and when is FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco played?
- FCI Levadia II vs Tartu Welco is played on September 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Maarjamäe Staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.