Nõmme United II vs Tallinna Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Tallinna Kalev the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Nõmme United II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nõmme United II vs Tallinna Kalev?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate Nõmme United II (1,279) and Tallinna Kalev (1,368).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nõmme United II have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Tallinna Kalev have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Viimsi(away) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 2-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elva(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Nõmme United II win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tallinna Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 3-1 Nõmme United II | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Nõmme United II 1-2 Tallinna Kalev | Esiliiga A |
| May 1, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev 4-4 Nõmme United II | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Tallinna Kalev vs Nõmme United II on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nõmme United II score 1.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tallinna Kalev score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United II | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Tallinna Kalev | 2.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nõmme United II sit 6th in Esiliiga A (18 points from 14 matches) and Tallinna Kalev sit 5th (18 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 18 |
| 5 | Tallinna Kalev | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 45 | 35 |
| 6 | Nõmme United II | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 18 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 56 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nõmme United II vs Tallinna Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Tallinna Kalev the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Nõmme United II.
- Where and when is Nõmme United II vs Tallinna Kalev played?
- Nõmme United II vs Tallinna Kalev is played on September 10, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC), in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.