Feirense vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Marcolino de Castro, Santa Maria da Feira
The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Feirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Penafiel wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Feirense vs Penafiel?
Penafiel starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,997 vs 1,895).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Feirense vs Penafiel
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Feirense
3-4-3- 25Henrique Pereira
- 19Alexandre Guedes
- 47Piri
- 77Gui Meira
- 90Luisinho
- 24M. Diaby
- 22Samad Popoola
- 14Pedro Pinto
- 4Antonio Leal
- 20João Oliveira
- 26Diego Altube
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 6Adrián Pica
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Feirense have 1 win, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Penafiel have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Farense(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 1-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | AVS(away) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Porto B(away) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Feirense wins, 0 draws, 1 Penafiel win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Feirense 1-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Penafiel 1-2 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Penafiel 1-2 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Feirense 3-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Penafiel 2-1 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Feirense 2-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Feirense score 0.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Feirense sit 18th in Segunda Liga (1 point from 7 matches) and Penafiel sit 4th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
A question about Feirense vs Penafiel?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Feirense vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Feirense.
- Where and when is Feirense vs Penafiel played?
- Feirense vs Penafiel is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Marcolino de Castro, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.