Penafiel vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab model makes Penafiel the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Penafiel (1,873) and Chaves (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Chaves have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting CP B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Academica(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Penafiel win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Chaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Chaves 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Penafiel 0-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| May 15, 2025 | Penafiel 0-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Chaves 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Penafiel 1-2 Chaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 6, 2022 | Penafiel 2-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Chaves | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 7th in Segunda Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Chaves sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Chaves | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Chaves?
- The Footlab model makes Penafiel the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Chaves played?
- Penafiel vs Chaves is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.