Penafiel vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel
The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Penafiel wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penafiel vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Penafiel (2,012) and Chaves (1,975).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Penafiel vs Chaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Penafiel
3-4-3- 10Davo
- 17João Pinto
- 9Max Svensson
- 21Pedro Sá
- 8Àlex Carbonell
- 50Francisco Varela
- 85Carlinhos Augusto
- 5Jaime Sánchez
- 27Gonçalo Negrão
- 6Adrián Pica
- 1Miguel Oliveira
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 7R. Esajas
- 1João Valido
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:48 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penafiel have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Chaves have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | AVS(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Oliveirense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Academica(home) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | FC Porto B(away) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Penafiel wins, 1 draw, 2 Chaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Chaves 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Penafiel 0-2 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| May 15, 2025 | Penafiel 0-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Chaves 0-1 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 18, 2023 | Penafiel 1-2 Chaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 6, 2022 | Penafiel 2-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Penafiel score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Chaves | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penafiel sit 4th in Segunda Liga (13 points from 7 matches) and Chaves sit 17th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Penafiel vs Chaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penafiel vs Chaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Penafiel the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Penafiel vs Chaves played?
- Penafiel vs Chaves is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 25 de Abril, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.