Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 32Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Ferro Carril Oeste the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Deportivo Madryn. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Ferro Carril Oeste (1,819) and Deportivo Madryn (1,860).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ferro Carril Oeste have 12 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Deportivo Madryn have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | All Boys(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlanta(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Andes(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Godoy Cruz(home) | 1-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Deportivo Moron(away) | 0-4 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Godoy Cruz(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atletico Mitre(home) | 4-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CA Estudiantes(away) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | All Boys(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ferro Carril Oeste win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Deportivo Madryn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn 0-1 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Ferro Carril Oeste 1-1 Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Deportivo Madryn 1-0 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Deportivo Madryn 1-0 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 17, 2023 | Ferro Carril Oeste 0-0 Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Deportivo Madryn 1-3 Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ferro Carril Oeste score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Madryn score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Deportivo Madryn | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ferro Carril Oeste sit 1st in Primera Nacional (52 points from 26 matches) and Deportivo Madryn sit 4th (43 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 52 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 38 | 24 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn?
- The Footlab model makes Ferro Carril Oeste the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Deportivo Madryn.
- Where and when is Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn played?
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.