Finnsnes vs Lillestrøm II: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 5Regular Season - 17Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Finnsnes kunstgress, Finnsnes
The Footlab model makes Finnsnes the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Lillestrøm II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Finnsnes vs Lillestrøm II?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Finnsnes (1,588) and Lillestrøm II (1,576).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Finnsnes have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Lillestrøm II have 7, 0 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Fauske Sprint(away) | 3-1 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bossekop(home) | 2-3 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Skedsmo(away) | 1-0 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Strømsgodset II(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Alta(away) | 0-3 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Harstad(home) | 3-4 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Skjetten(away) | 1-2 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kongsvinger II(home) | 4-5 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fløya(away) | 2-3 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Tromsø II(home) | 5-3 | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Finnsnes win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lillestrøm II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Lillestrøm II 3-2 Finnsnes | 3. Division - Girone 5 |
Last archived meeting: Lillestrøm II vs Finnsnes on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Finnsnes score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lillestrøm II score 3.3 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finnsnes | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Lillestrøm II | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0 | 15/15 | 15/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Finnsnes sit 2nd in 3. Division - Girone 5 (32 points from 16 matches) and Lillestrøm II sit 8th (21 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Finnsnes | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 23 | 32 |
| 8 | Lillestrøm II | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 50 | 39 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Finnsnes vs Lillestrøm II?
- The Footlab model makes Finnsnes the favourite at 53%, against 20% for a draw and 27% for Lillestrøm II.
- Where and when is Finnsnes vs Lillestrøm II played?
- Finnsnes vs Lillestrøm II is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Finnsnes kunstgress, in the 3. Division - Girone 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.