Napoli vs Sassuolo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Sassuolo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Napoli wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Napoli vs Sassuolo?
Napoli starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (2,067 vs 1,927).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Napoli vs Sassuolo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Napoli
3-4-2-1- 19R. Højlund
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 11K. De Bruyne
- 68S. Lobotka
- 21M. Politano
- 70N. Lang
- 37L. Spinazzola
- 13Amir Rrahmani
- 16Rafa Marín
- 5B. Badiashile
- 1A. Meret
Sassuolo
4-3-3- 45A. Laurienté
- 94S. Esposito
- 10D. Berardi
- 18N. Matić
- 50D. Bakola
- 17Vasilije Adžić
- 3J. Doig
- 16F. Leysen
- 15D. Ćaleta-Car
- 20I. Van der Brempt
- 49A. Murić
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 12:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Napoli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Sassuolo have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Villarreal(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Monza(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Bologna(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Napoli wins, 0 draws, 0 Sassuolo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Napoli 1-0 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Sassuolo 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Sassuolo 1-6 Napoli | Serie A |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Napoli 2-0 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Feb 17, 2023 | Sassuolo 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Napoli 4-0 Sassuolo | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sassuolo score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Sassuolo | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Napoli sit 8th in Serie A (10 points from 6 matches) and Sassuolo sit 11th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
A question about Napoli vs Sassuolo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Sassuolo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Sassuolo.
- Where and when is Napoli vs Sassuolo played?
- Napoli vs Sassuolo is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.