FK Spartak Tambov vs Orel: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 23Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Tambov
The Footlab model makes FK Spartak Tambov the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Orel. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Spartak Tambov vs Orel?
FK Spartak Tambov starts as the favourite with a 226-point Elo edge (1,755 vs 1,529).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Spartak Tambov have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Orel have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Zenit Penza(away) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | SKA Rostov(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strogino(home) | 0-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | SKA Khabarovsk II(home) | 2-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kvant(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2Drots(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 FK Spartak Tambov win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Orel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Orel 1-5 FK Spartak Tambov | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Orel 0-2 FK Spartak Tambov | Second League - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | FK Spartak Tambov 4-0 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 11, 2024 | FK Spartak Tambov 1-0 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Orel 1-0 FK Spartak Tambov | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Orel vs FK Spartak Tambov on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Spartak Tambov score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Orel score 0.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Spartak Tambov | 1.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Orel | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Spartak Tambov sit 2nd in Second League - Group 3 (47 points from 20 matches) and Orel sit 11th (23 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 11 | 47 |
| 11 | Orel | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Spartak Tambov vs Orel?
- The Footlab model makes FK Spartak Tambov the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Orel.
- Where and when is FK Spartak Tambov vs Orel played?
- FK Spartak Tambov vs Orel is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.