Orel vs Shumbrat: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 24Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina, Oryol (Orel)
The Footlab model makes Shumbrat the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Orel. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orel vs Shumbrat?
Shumbrat starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,683 vs 1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orel have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Shumbrat have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kvant(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2Drots(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strogino(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 2Drots(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SKA Khabarovsk II(away) | 2-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Saturn Ramenskoye(away) | 2-4 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Orel win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Shumbrat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Shumbrat 2-0 Orel | Second League - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Orel score 0.9 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Shumbrat score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orel | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Shumbrat | 1.9 | 1.2 | 7 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orel sit 11th in Second League - Group 3 (23 points from 20 matches) and Shumbrat sit 5th (37 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shumbrat | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 26 | 37 |
| 11 | Orel | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orel vs Shumbrat?
- The Footlab model makes Shumbrat the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Orel.
- Where and when is Orel vs Shumbrat played?
- Orel vs Shumbrat is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Central'nyj im. V.I. Lenina, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.