Shumbrat vs Rodina Moskva III: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 23Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Shumbrat the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Rodina Moskva III. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shumbrat vs Rodina Moskva III?
Shumbrat starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,685 vs 1,565).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shumbrat have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Rodina Moskva III have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arsenal Tula II(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strogino(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 2Drots(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SKA Khabarovsk II(away) | 2-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Saturn Ramenskoye(away) | 2-4 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ryazan(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rotor-2(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kvant(away) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Shumbrat win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Rodina Moskva III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Rodina Moskva III 0-1 Shumbrat | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Rodina Moskva III vs Shumbrat on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shumbrat score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Rodina Moskva III score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shumbrat | 1.9 | 1.2 | 7 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Rodina Moskva III | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shumbrat sit 5th in Second League - Group 3 (37 points from 20 matches) and Rodina Moskva III sit 9th (25 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shumbrat | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 26 | 37 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 34 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shumbrat vs Rodina Moskva III?
- The Footlab model makes Shumbrat the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Rodina Moskva III.
- Where and when is Shumbrat vs Rodina Moskva III played?
- Shumbrat vs Rodina Moskva III is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.