FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ortalyq stadıon, Kostanay
The Footlab model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aktobe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate FK Tobol Kostanay (1,607) and Aktobe (1,610).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Tobol Kostanay have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Aktobe have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Kaisar(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Partizan(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Partizan(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ordabasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atyrau(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Okzhetpes(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Altay(away) | 4-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FK Tobol Kostanay win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Aktobe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Aktobe 4-1 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Aktobe 0-0 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | FK Tobol Kostanay 2-0 Aktobe | Premier League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | FK Tobol Kostanay 3-0 Aktobe | Premier League |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Aktobe 3-4 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Aktobe 1-1 FK Tobol Kostanay | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aktobe vs FK Tobol Kostanay on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FK Tobol Kostanay score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Aktobe score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Tobol Kostanay | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Aktobe | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Tobol Kostanay sit 7th in Premier League (28 points from 22 matches) and Aktobe sit 5th (35 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 26 | 35 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe?
- The Footlab model makes FK Tobol Kostanay the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aktobe.
- Where and when is FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe played?
- FK Tobol Kostanay vs Aktobe is played on November 1, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ortalyq stadıon, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.